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A Navy sailor holds a Russian flag as people celebrate the first anniversary of the signing of the decree on the annexation of the Crimea by the Russian Federation, on March 18, 2015 in Sevastopol, Crimea.

Four alternative Russia futures highlight the complex issues facing NATO in the next decade

Strategic Competition and Russia: Russia 2036 Exercise Summary and Analysis

Graeme P. Herd and Tom Kühnel

February 2026, Number 01

As part of the Strategic Competition and Russia course at GCMC, 70 course participants from 32 countries developed a shared understanding of Russia’s broad national interests, foreign policy goals, and the role of its strategic culture. Recognizing that the readiness of Allies and partners is not simply a near- or mid-term challenge, the Russia 2036 exercise developed four alternative futures for the Russian Federation across a 10-year time horizon. The findings point to key challenges for NATO, Europe, and the United States in the coming decade.

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