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The Arab Spring and the post-Soviet political order

Wave of Change Creates Eurasian Ripples

October 2011, Number 02.04

“Regime change has rippled across North Africa – first in Tunisia, next in Egypt, then Libya. Its effects have been felt in Yemen and Bahrain and now Syria totters on the brink of implosion. On the eve of the 20th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, might “revolutionary contagion” once again become a driving dynamic in Eurasia? Throughout 2011, the media and analysts debated the causes, course and possible consequences of the Arab Spring, including the potential of direct spillover into Eurasia.The Arab Spring has also implicitly challenged the viability of existing United States, NATO, Russian and European Union strategic approaches to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), especially the assumptions upon which these approaches rested, and raised the question: What are the implications of such reassessment and recalibrations to European-Eurasian relations?

Arab Spring, Eurasian Winter?
The commonalties between the Arab Spring in the MENA region and conditions on the ground in Eurasia are apparent: Enduring inequalities and dignity deficits continue, long-standing authoritarian republicanism remains in place, intra-regional transnational societal spillover potential is ever-present, and resource distribution and allocation is explained by pre-existing family, clan, tribal, ethnic, religious and gender allegiances and animosities...”

Excerpt from Graeme P. Herd, “Wave of Change Creates Eurasian Ripples,” per Concordiam: Journal of European Security Defense Issues  2, No. 4, 2011: 10-17.

This article reflects the views of the author and are not necessarily the official policy of the United States, Germany, or any other governments.