Ambassador talks about diplomatic problem of Iran's nuclear activity
February 6, 2007
By Anne Fugate, Marshall Center Public Affairs
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany — The senior U.S. representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency gave military and civilian leaders from more than 31 countries insight into a seemingly intractable diplomatic problem when he spoke here Feb. 6 on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Vienna, speaks about Iran’s nuclear ambitions to military and civilian leaders from 31 countries attending the Program in Advanced Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.
Photo by Karlheinz Wedhorn
Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Vienna, spoke to 125 leaders who are attending the Program in Advanced Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. The ambassador is one of the distinguished practitioners who will discuss international relations, security policy, defense affairs and related topics during the twelve-week course.
Schulte told the PASS participants that when IAEA Director-General Mohammed ElBaradei reports to the IAEA Board and the UN Security Council Feb. 21, he will likely be able to deliver only bad news.
“The Director-General will likely have to repeat what he reported last November,” Schulte said, “that after three years of intensive verification, the IAEA remains unable to certify the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities.”
Furthermore, Schulte said, “the Director-General will likely report that Iran is in even deeper violation of its international obligations.”
ElBaradei will make his report in less than two weeks in accordance with the Security Council’s Resolution 1737, which placed Iran under an initial set of Chapter VII sanctions. The Security Council passed the resolution in December, after Iran refused to meet conditions—the suspension of all enrichment and reprocessing activities—to open negotiations on an incentives package offered by six foreign ministers from Russia, China, the United States and Europe in June.
According to Schulte, not only do Iran’s leaders continue to refuse to cooperate with IAEA inspections and requests for information, but “they now seem determined to take steps toward large-scale enrichment.”
Schulte pointed to a pilot plant with underground uranium enrichment halls in Natanz as evidence.
“Iranian authorities have told the world to expect a major nuclear announcement [on Feb. 11]. Most analysts suspect it will involve the first steps toward large-scale uranium enrichment in the underground halls at Natanz,” Schulte said.
“In fact, Mohammed ElBaradei has confirmed that Iranian technicians are moving ahead rapidly toward installing a 3,000-centrifuge capability. Three thousand centrifuges, once operating successfully, could produce enough highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in less than a year.”
Schulte noted that Iran is also in the process of building a 40-megawatt heavy water reactor at a heavy water production plant outside of Arak. Such a reactor could produce enough plutonium for at least one nuclear weapon a year, Schulte said.
Despite Iran’s protestations to the contrary, its nuclear activities are not consistent with a peaceful program, but with the development of nuclear weapons, Schulte said.
A nuclear-armed Iran would pose an even greater threat to its neighbors and the international community, Schulte said, providing greater support to terrorist activities and undermining Middle East peace and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
In the face of these threats, Schulte told the assembled leaders, “UN member states, all of us, must take immediate action to implement the initial sanctions imposed by Resolution 1737.” In fact, Schulte said, “like-minded countries, all of our countries, must impose measures beyond Resolution 1737 to reinforce the pressure on Iran’s leadership to comply with the resolution.”
To head off the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the international community needs to use the full range of non-military measures at its disposal, Schulte said.
“This non-military campaign should direct political, economic, communications, and other non-military pressure at Iran’s leadership and those who can influence them,” Schulte said. “If such a campaign, a non-military campaign, is serious and sustained, and supported by other like-minded countries, it has the potential to succeed against a regime that has failed to deliver on its economic promises, that needs foreign investment to sustain government revenue, and that faces increasing opposition at home.”
