Author: Sebastian von Münchow
- Date: August 2017 -
On December 19th 2016, Anis Amri, a Tunisian citizen, hijacked a truck and crashed into a Christmas market at Breitscheid Platz in Berlin. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, which resulted in twelve deaths and fifty additional casualties. Amri escaped the crime scene and travelled through Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France to Northern Italy where police officers killed him near Milan three days later. This assault was the first major terrorist event in Germany for decades. Prior to this event, the most recent attacks were the Red Army Faction plots in the 1970s, the Olympics hostage-taking in 1972, and the right-wing motivated attack on Munich’s Oktoberfest in 1980. This attack, in which a vehicle rammed into a crowded Christmas market in the center of Berlin, not only sparked a debate about Berlin’s migration policy at large, but also focused the conversation on specific questions. How could Amri be seeking asylum in Germany despite his criminal record in Italy? How did he operate inside Germany using fourteen different identities? Did he rely on a network of supporters? How did he manage to travel through half of Europe before his life ended? Some political voices called for security-related reforms aimed at improving video surveillance, data exchange, and deportation processes, while others demanded a thorough parliamentary investigation of the plot. This paper will briefly touch upon those parliamentary attempts on state and federal level to explore the plot. It will then revisit federal inquiries into matters related to the security architecture over the past twenty-seven years as well as the coverage of these inquiries in the media. Finally, this study will conclude with some thoughts about whether a federal parliamentary inquiry should have been used to investigate what happened before, during, and after the attack.
Author: MAJ Matthew McCray
- Date: December 2014 -
The formation of an Army of Europe has been discussed almost since the end of World War II, but has yet to be realized. After reading through the numerous and varied proposals over the past sixty years, the observer invariably arrives at the conclusion that all concerned parties agree: the European Union (EU) should have its own military. The Union today, taken as a whole, is an economic and cultural superpower. Its leading nations seem to be willing to pursue the status of a humanitarian superpower and leader in conflict prevention, as well as to defend the Europe’s perceived collective interests in the world.
Author: COL Paul A. Tombarge
- Date: December 2014 -
There is no doubt current North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations depend extensively upon space capabilities and, given NATO trends towards ballistic missile defense, precision, reach-back, communication, and maximum flexibility, the use of space is only likely to increase in the future. In 2012, NATO’s Joint Air Power Competence Center (JAPCC) put forth a broad framework for a NATO space policy. JAPCC originally developed the proposal and provided it to Allied Command Transformation (ACT) Space Integrated Project Team, known colloquially as the Space IPT.1 While the Space IPT subsequently decided to suspend its efforts on the policy front, development of a NATO space policy is still worthy of continued investigation.
Authors: James Wither and Thilo Schroeter
- Date: May 2012 -
This Marshall Center Occasional Paper addresses the challenges of policing on United Nations and coalition stability operations and assesses efforts to achieve host nation police primacy, defined as a situation where indigenous police have the main responsibility for internal security and the maintenance of the rule of law. The paper offers a broad perspective; identifying and discussing the common, re-occurring problems that have beset policing operations, and assessing national and international efforts to make better use of foreign and host nation police assets. National and international staffs have worked hard to improve policing over the last twenty years, but the authors conclude that the provision of effective policing on stability operations will remain a challenge for the international community. Unfortunately, it appears likely that different perceptions of national interests, domestic political constraints, and bureaucratic inertia will continue to impact negatively on police capabilities.
Authors: Matthew Rhodes
- Date: November 2012 -
After a difficult start, the Obama administration has made a concerted effort to reassure Central Europe of American commitment and advance cooperation across substantive issues including missile defense, NATO
operations, energy and economics, and democracy promotion. Yet occasional new missteps and mixed reception in the region have left some lingering doubts. As both sides' evolving interests in Europe and beyond still stand to gain from mutual support, a second-term Obama or successor Romney presidency will need to actively build on recent progress rather than revert to complacency.
Authors: António Eugénio
- Date: December 2013 -
There is no official running event that combines hurdles with relay races. This may be the case for smart defense, where obstacles in capability development and burden sharing are mixed with sovereignty transfer. This does not mean, however, that such a race will not take place in the future. Just like smart defense, one day this approach may become the normal way of doing business within NATO. For now, though, that is unlikely to occur.
Authors: Sven Bernhard Gareis, PH.D.
- Date: April 2013 -
Carried on the wings of its continuing economic success, China has opted for a more comprehensive, self-confident, proactive, and often tougher approach in its foreign policy at the regional as well as at the global level. The question is no longer if but how China will make its way to the top and become a truly global power. So, what is to be expected of China in the future? This paper offers a systematic look at the essential preconditions, goals, and approaches of China’s “grand strategy” that may help to answer this question and lead to conclusions about where the country is going in the international system.
Authors: Dorinel Moldovan, Plamen Pantev, and Matthew Rhodes
- Date: August 2009 -
Joint Task Force East (JTFE), the framework for shared used of select military bases in Romania and Bulgaria, marks a major milestone in America’s military presence in Central and Southeast Europe. Following previous, more limited deployments across the region, U.S. forces are poised to become long-term fixtures in both countries under renewable, ten-year agreements signed in late 2005 and early 2006. The arrangements potentially serve as representative models for similar efforts in other countries.
All three governments have hailed their new cooperation as of great strategic, even historic, significance. For the U.S., it exemplifies the broader transformation of defense capabilities and relationships. For Romania and Bulgaria, it manifests integration into the Euroatlantic West.
However, translating the original hopes and vision for JTFE into reality has proven slower and more difficult than expected. Further internal and external challenges remain. In the face of a certain loss of momentum, the ultimate success and durability of the initiative rests on maintaining realistic expectations, adapting to evolving security realities, improving intra-governmental coordination, and integrating U.S. presence within multilateral frameworks.
Author: Dr. Carsten Bockstette
- Date: December 2008 -
As long as the East bloc existed, military conflicts were largely determined by the policy of the USA and the USSR. Since the East-West conflict was decided in favor of the West, numerous asymmetrical conflicts have erupted around the globe in the aftermath. Terrorist conflicts have become a worldwide menace. Jihadist terrorism has spread beyond the borders of the regions in which it had its origin and has reached a global dimension.
The terrorist abuse of airliners as bombs on September 11, 2001 was a sad climax in this new asymmetrical jihadist conflict. To offset this threat requires knowledge of what motivates, feeds and sanctions jihadist terrorists and their followers. Research and analysis of the root causes and underlying conditions, motivators and enablers of terrorism including the agitation propaganda of jihadist terrorists are vital to shaping appropriate countermeasures to the threat from Islamic terrorism.
Author: Richard J. Anderson
- Date: September 2008 -
While the current European Union energy policy is forward thinking in its targets for renewable energy, economizing, and emission reduction, it falls short in its failure to recognize the security threat of the increasing dependence on Russian hydrocarbons – in particular, natural gas.
This paper proposes a diversification strategy with concrete steps that can be taken in a variety of energy policy areas to create, over the long-term, a more balanced approach to meeting energy needs. Europe must undertake such a strategy not only because over-reliance on any one source represents unsound policy, but more importantly because domination of the European market has been a clear and calculated goal that an unreliable Russian administration has been working towards for several years. Russian domination of the European natural gas market would give the Kremlin incredible leverage in its dealings with its European neighbors. Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas already profoundly affects the freedom of action of certain European states and will increasingly erode European sovereignty. Several factors could mitigate Russia’s capability to monopolize natural gas markets on the European continent.
This article also discusses these factors, in particular in the context of the kind of steps greater Europe could take to ensure Russia does not realize its goal of reasserting coercive influence through its ‘energy weapon.’
Author: Mark G. Czelusta
- Date: June 2008 -
While Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld did not invent transformation, he made the effort a singular priority. But by 2007, defense language shifted from “transforming” to “recapitalizing” the military. Rumsfeld was out of office and the organizations he created to facilitate transformation were reabsorbed by the larger Pentagon bureaucracy. If Rumsfeld’s transformation is indeed dead, does this mean that transformation, as a greater process is dead as well? Answers to such questions require one to understand first that “Rumsfeld’s transformation vision” is actually the result of multiple influences that predate his time in office.
Second, “Rumsfeld’s transformation vision” is actually an umbrella term for a new way of war, a process, and a defense strategy. And third, in spite of Rumsfeld’s reputation for aggressive leadership, the military services shaped, and at times, limited the effectiveness of his program. This advanced research project discusses transformation’s historical roots, and derives a coherent description of what is commonly called, “Rumsfeld’s transformation vision.” Looking at how the services executed transformation, the author examines how each service completed its tasks in support of the Transformation Planning Guidance. While transformation is not dead in 2008, it remains an unguided process. Assuming that transformation is something that is worthwhile, the author provides several recommendations for reinvigorating the effort.
Author: Dr. Olaf Theiler
- Date: February 2008 -
The new strategic environment has challenged the mission and identity of the Atlantic Alliance and caused serious disputes. Disputes between the European nations and the United States of America over burden-sharing and different roles have been a recurring feature of transatlantic relations. A great deal of thought is currently being given to new forms for the transatlantic partnership, although a viable outcome is still a long way off.
At present, the political elites in the U.S. and Europe are in a phase of redefining their relationship to one another. In Washington, conclusions and consequences are gradually being drawn from the difficult experiences of the Iraq crisis, while in Europe the controversy that has existed since the beginning of the European integration process between “Atlanticists” and “intergovernmentalists” on the one hand and “integrationalists” on the other has still not been settled.
Given that the outcome of these developments remains largely open; this article seeks to contribute to the debate on the future of NATO and the transatlantic community. A description of the main developments in NATO since the end of the Cold War – with special emphasis on the Alliances new military roles and missions – and a summary of different trends in the U.S. and Europe will provide a basis for analyzing the factors influencing a future transatlantic bargain inside, or in cooperation with, NATO. Finally, we examine the different options as to where transatlantic reactions may be headed.
Author: Markus Gauster
- Date: January 2008 -
Since 2003, the so-called Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) have attempted to combine relatively small civilian and military components on the ground in Afghanistan, to achieve comprehensive results by focusing on provincial and district centres and to support the political leadership as well as the Afghan society extensively, without, however, releasing them from their responsibilities, or dominating them. Up to now, experience with the PRTs point towards their considerable potential as an instrument in comprehensive conflict management and nation building.
On the one hand this volume gives general information on the PRT model, and, on the other, compares the US, British and German realization of this model. It is to be seen as an intermediary step in the scientific analysis of a topic which will also become increasingly important not only for contributing nations, but also for Security Organizations.
Author: Dr. Nima Mina
- Date: December 2007 -
Since the beginning of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, increased concerns about the Islamic Republic’s political behavior have aggravated the confrontation between Iran and the international community more than ever. As the relationship between the regime and the international community has become more antagonistic, the Iranian people are increasingly losing their voice and are deprived of their right of self- determination.
The Iranians are now in danger of becoming the losers of a conflict provoked by the regime’s political and ideological agenda. Some observers are convinced that the “problem” of the Islamic Republic can only be solved in the interest of the international community if the initiative for change comes from within Iranian civil society. In order to estimate the possibilities and limitations of change arising from within the Islamic Republic, it is helpful to observe the effectiveness of independent public information dissemination and discourse. The internet era has given Iranian civil society the possibility to explore and participate in alternative spaces for intellectual and political discourse, outside the realm of the regime-controlled media. This paper deals with the internet as the vehicle and instrument of the new, independent Iranian information society.
Author: Veneta Momtcheva
- Date: December 2007 -
This research paper focuses on further developments in EU-US cooperation, an area in which substantial progress has been made. The purpose of this research paper is to discuss the aims and outcomes of the German EU Council Presidency in the above field, analyze the challenges, and highlight certain trends. The very contemporary nature of this topic necessitated the use of limited and primarily electronic sources of information, but also provided an inspiring opportunity to examine a topic that has not yet become the subject of numerous analyses by politicians, academics and the media.
Author: Dr. Natalia P. Romashkina
- Date: November 2007 -
The article carefully examines the historical conditions and security concerns that have led the two nations to take extraordinary risks and make extraordinary investments in their nuclear programs, which have led the two countries, independently, to their current status. The important role of geopolitics and the shifting - critical - relations with neighbors have greatly influenced the choices that each country has made.
The technical challenges associated with creating the necessary infrastructure to pursue a goal as costly and complex as the development of nuclear weapons are examined in the two cases as well. Finally, the role of other nations that made the development of these capabilities possible - more rapidly than either country could have done independently - is an important variable also considered/examined in this paper.
Author: John Kriendler
- Date: July 2007 -
The issue of Ukraine's integration in NATO is an important one. Looking to the evolution of this issue, the author addresses in this paper the benefits that Ukraine could expect to derive from NATO integration as well as the costs of membership and some misconceptions, usually advanced by critics of Ukraine's NATO aspirations. For completeness, he also highlights some of the key challenges that Ukraine is facing regarding NATO membership. This involves the question of how far NATO will go in enlarging into the former Soviet space and what security arrangements Russia will develop to assure its own security.
Author: Barre R. Seguin
- Date: June 2007 -
This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the Polish fighter aircraft selection process, assesses the dominate issues, and answers the question, "Why did Poland choose the F-16?" In addition to conclusively answering the question, this article sheds light on the relevance of the Polish tender to future large foreign military sales (FMS). In particular, the applicability of lessons learned from the Polish sale to other large FMS is gauged.
Author: Jahangir Arasli
- Date: April 2007 -
Jahangir Arasli is a civilian advisor on International Issues to the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan. He holds a Master's degree from Moscow State University (1983), and is a graduate from the Institute of Countries of Asia and Africa (Arabic Branch). He is also a graduate of the George C. Marshall Center for European Security Studies (Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, 1998), the NATO Defense College (Rome, Italy 2001), the Cranfield University, Royal College of Military Sciences (Shrivenham, United Kingdom, 2004), the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Geneva, Switzerland 2005 - 2006); and participated in several international courses in Germany, Sweden, and Bulgaria.
He has published numerous books and articles in the different magazines and newspapers, most recently: "Who is Who in the World War Four: Terrorists, Insurgents, Separatists, Extremists, Radicals, Mercenaries, Sectarians and Godfathers from A to Z" (2005).
Author: Dr. Sabine Collmer
- Date: February 2007 -
Dr. Sabine Collmer is the Director of Research in the College of International and Security Studies of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, and a guest lecturer at the NATO School in Oberammergau, Germany.
Between 1999 and 2005 she was a lecturer and senior researcher at the Faculty for Social Sciences of the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. She has published widely in the fields of civil-military relations, modernization of armed forces, and on new forms of organized violence and war.
Among her latest publications is: Ein Job wie jeder andere? Zum Selbst- und Berufsverständnis von Soldaten (Baden-Baden, Nomos, 2005) co-edited with Gerhard Kümmel, and Krieg, Konflikt und Gesellschaft: Aktuelle interdisziplinäre Perspektiven (Hamburg, Kovac, 2003).
Author: James Wither
- Date: February 2007 -
James Wither is Professor of National Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. He has been a member of the Marshall Center since August 2000 and is a retired British Army Officer. He researches and writes on British security issues.
His most recent publications are "An Endangered Partnership: The Anglo American Defence Relationship in the Early Twenty-First Century" European Security, Vol. 15, No. 1, March 2006, pp. 47 - 65 and "Battling Bullying in the British Army 1987 - 2004" in Francoise Daucé and Elisabeth Sieca-Kozlowski, Eds. Dedovshchina in the Post-Soviet Military: Hazing of Russian Army Conscripts in a Comparative Perspective, (Stuttgart: Ibidem Verlag) 2006, pp. 221 - 236.
Author: Anna I. Zakharchenko
- Date: January 2007 -
This paper is intended to give a comparative analysis of the strategies of U.S. and EU towards two major global security threats - terrorism and the proliferation of WMD. These threats, and especially their coupling, represent the gravest danger for world security in the beginning of the 21st century.
Author: Cristian Urse
- Date: January 2007 -
Cristian Urse is a diplomat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania. He holds a Masters degree in Russian and East European Studies from Georgetown University. Since October 2004 he has been an associate lecturer at the University of Bucharest, Department of Sociology and Social Work. Between May and August 2006 he completed the Program in Advanced Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. The opinions expressed in this paper are the author's own views and do not involve in any way the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania.
Author: Dr. Graeme P. Herd
- Date: December 2006 -
Dr. Graeme P. Herd is a resident Faculty Member at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) where he is currently Joint Director of the 21st International Training Course (ITC), October 2006 - June 2007.
He is an Associate Fellow ('International Security Programme') of Chatham House, London and an Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Aberdeen, Scotland. Between 2002 - 2005 he was Professor of Civil-Military Relations, Associate Director of the Senior Executive Seminar and Faculty Director of Research at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, where he also was a guest lecturer at the NATO School in Oberammergau.
His latest books are: The Ideological War on Terror: World Wide Strategies for Counter Terrorism (London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2007), pp. 1-285, co-edited with Anne Aldis, and Divided West: European Security and the Transatlantic Relationship (London: Blackwell's Publishing Ltd., 2006), pp. 1-186, co-authored with Tuomas Forsberg.
Author: Monika Izydorczyk
- Date: November 2006 -
Monika Izydorczyk is the current Political Officer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Mission in Kosovo, working for the OSCE in Macedonia (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in Kosovo since 2005.
Between 2000 and 2005 she was the Senior Expert in the Office of the National Security Advisor (National Security Bureau) to the President of the Republic of Poland, specializing in the analysis of conflict areas, focusing on the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans.
In 2004 she attended the George C. Marshall Center's "Leaders in the 21st Century" course and was the Marshall Center's first Visiting Scholar. From 2000 to 2005 she regularly contributed articles ─ emphasizing European Integration ─ to the military journal "Polska-Zbrojna" and the journal "Unia-Polska".
Author: Dr. Anne Marie Baylouny
- Date: October 2006 -
The current US administration has identified the Lebanese Islamist group Hizbullah as a key threat and the group's media a source of increasing anti-Americanism. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld blamed al-Jazeera, the leading Arabic language news station, for encouraging Islamism by broadcasting beheadings of hostages in Iraq, a charge the station denies.
In President George Bush's State of the Union address in 2004, he focused on Arab television stations he claimed are responsible for "hateful propaganda" against the US. The stations distort news and show explicit images producing anti-Americanism.
Al-Manar, a satellite television service launched by the Lebanese Hizbullah, is one of those stations. The US maintains that al-Manar is anti-Semitic and promotes hatred, and lists Hizbullah as a terrorist group.
Author: Dr. Ehsan Ahrari
- Date: October 2006 -
The Ferghana Valley consists of portions of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The chief problems of that Valley include the absence of democracy, the presence of acute economic underdevelopment, and a high degree of repression. These conditions are generally considered to be contributing to the popularity of extremist movements. Two such organizations are the focus of this study: Hizb ut-Tahrir-e-Islami or Hizb Tahrir (the Islamic Liberation Movement or HT), and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). HT is a radical Islamist party, but it is not Jihadist in orientation. Its purpose is to establish the Caliphate (Khilafah) in Central Asia and elsewhere in the world of Islam.
The proposition of creating a Caliphate is a radical one; however, HT insists that it intends to achieve its purpose through peaceful means only. The IMU is a pan-Islamist and Jihadist party. As such, it intends to overthrow the governments of the Ferghana Valley through violent means (i.e., through the use of militant Jihad). Indeed, it has exploited the repressive governing style of the governments and the acute economic underdevelopment of the area to launch a number of armed attacks in those countries in the late 1990s and 2000.
Author: Dr. Denis Alexeev
- Date: September 2006 -
Today many scholars argue whether contemporary world has become more secure and safer in comparison to the Cold War era. We may find many arguments in favor of one or another point of view on this issue, but one thing is doubtless: today's challenges and threats are more asymmetric in character and, consequently, require a more flexible attitude toward finding solutions and answers. The international security system, which was created in the middle of 20th Century, can hardly be applied to contemporary reality and calls for a serious revision of at least some key principles which have lost their relevance, if not a total modernization of whole arrangement.
The need for of this has been coming for a long time. Such event like September 11th as well as terrorist attacks in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, war in Iraq and a political discourse about its inevitability and legitimacy underlined the urgency of required transformation. All these are just some examples, very striking though, of little compatibility between the existing world order and the new security threats. Ignoring this fact, in our opinion, may lead to even more dramatic and catastrophic consequences for the system of international security.